Ryan O’Hanlon is a writer and editor living in Los Angeles. He publishes a twice-a-week newsletter about soccer called <a href=" Grass in the Clouds.

FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

Eight Republican candidates participated in the party’s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month. Table only ...

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 was supposed to settle the debate over race, redistricting and representation. Instead, it started new ones. Since the act prohibits states from reducing a minority group ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have ...

The NFL has had quite an eventful year. In fact, the 2022 season has been characterized by a series of controversies that, when taken together, seem like a microcosm of the criticisms and existential ...

In the first month of 2023, 25 people lost their lives in four mass shootings in California over just eight days. It’s a grim statistic, made all the more distressing when you consider the fact that ...

I’m not that impressed by long-term projections of Democratic doom in the Senate. Mostly that’s because I’m not that impressed by long-term political projections in general. Political coalitions ...

Throughout the midterms, I think we saw issues that hadn’t been on many people’s radar matter when those rights looked to be under threat. The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade played a major role ...

All market ratings are adjusted for projected population growth through 2040. Popularity measured by Google Trends. Sources: Zach Miller, Google Trends, The New York Times, CollegeRaptor.com, ...

However, by other measures, the new map is better for Republicans. First, the “tipping-point” congressional seat — i.e., the majority-making 218th bluest and 218th reddest seat in the House — is ...

The U.S. House of Representatives isn’t the only chamber whose district lines are being redrawn to reflect the 2020 census. State-legislative chambers are being redistricted too — and as we’ve written ...